Serie A · Italy

4 wins from 4 at San Siro: Inter without Lautaro against a Fiorentina side who concede every game

Inter – Fiorentina · Kick-off: 25 October 2026 at 14:30

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Inter have won all 4 home games at San Siro this season, scoring 3.75 per game; opposite them is Fiorentina, 18th with 1 win in 7 and conceding in every game. In their last five Inter beat Napoli 3-2 and Udinese 5-3, drew 2-2 with Roma, beat Parma 3-0 and won 3-1 at Bologna; so the attack is complete but they concede at the back too (9 in 7). Fiorentina's last game was a 1-3 loss to Como (4th), having beaten Genoa (17th) 2-1; they concede 2.67 per game away, but we shouldn't forget that Mastantuono has scored 3 of the team's 8 goals (38%, all away). Inter are without Lautaro Martínez (4 of the team's 21 goals, 19%) with a muscle injury, not expected back until mid-November; Luis Henrique, Pavard and Stones are also out. Chivu, who beat Shakhtar in the Champions League, is expected to rotate; Provedel could make his first appearance of the season, and Thuram and Pio Esposito look set to lead the line. Fiorentina are without Atta, Ranieri and Parisi (cruciate).

The home win looks like the cleanest option to me: Inter are unbeaten in the league, 4 from 4 at home, and Fiorentina are very fragile away and in general. On goals, over 2.5 landing in 6 of Inter's 7 games (86%), with Fiorentina at the same 86%, supports Over 2.5. Fiorentina carry some risk of not scoring away (they failed once in 3), but conceding every game and scoring 1.67 on average keep BTTS – Yes possible too. Inter team goals over 2.5 is a bit ambitious, though the home average is 3.75.

Picks

  • Match Result~1.37
    Home win (Inter)
    Note: Megapari 1.37, TipsQuant, 24 Oct 2026 23:48 (EAT). Approximate.
  • Over/Under~1.42
    Over 2.5
    Note: Megapari 1.42, TipsQuant, 24 Oct 2026. Approximate.
  • BTTS~1.64
    BTTS – Yes
    Note: Megapari 1.64, TipsQuant, 24 Oct 2026. Approximate.
  • Team Goalsno odds
    Inter over 1.5
    Note: Odds not verified.

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Match Stats

 InterFiorentina
Rank218
Points194
Last 5W 3-2 Napoli, W 5-3 Udinese, D 2-2 Roma, W 3-0 Parma, W 3-1 BolognaL 1-2 Torino, L 2-4 Venezia, D 1-1 Napoli, W 2-1 Genoa, L 1-3 Como
Goals per game at home / Goals per game away3.751.67
Top scorer–Mastantuono 3/8 (38%)
Last meeting
Inter 3-0 Fiorentina (29 Oct 25), Fiorentina 1-1 Inter (22 Mar 26)
Away Away GA
2.67

Pre-match News

Sources

Verification note: Numbers from soccerstats; injuries from Gazzetta/Goal.com/OneFootball (24 October). Lautaro's return date from Goal.com: "mid-November".

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