Eredivisie · Netherlands

Sparta have conceded in 9 of 9, Ajax have won 4 in a row away: a goal fest at Het Kasteel?

Sparta Rotterdam – Ajax · Kick-off: 25 October 2026 at 18:45

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Sparta have conceded in all 9 games this season and at least 2 in each of their last 7; at home they concede 2.40 per game over 5 games and have never scored first. Opposite them Ajax have won their last 4 away games (4.00 scored and 0.75 conceded per game away), are unbeaten in their last 5 and won all 5 of those by at least 2 goals. However, the opponents in those last five (Fortuna, Willem II, Excelsior, NEC, Groningen) are mid and lower-table sides; the only serious test was a 1-3 loss to PSV. Sparta beat Willem II (18th) 3-2 to win from behind for the first time; Zonneveld has scored 6 of the team's 16 goals (38%). Ajax are without Dolberg (2 goals), Caio Henrique, Gaaei, Edvardsen and Adingra, with Blind and Berghuis back in the group but uncertain to play; Sparta are only without Mito. Ajax's goals are spread out: Brandt has 6 of 27 (22%), Arokodare 4, and 17-year-old Mokio has 3 (all away). In the head-to-head Sparta have never beaten Ajax (14 games, 0 wins, 3 draws).

Goal expectation is very high: over 2.5 landed in 89% of Sparta games and 78% of Ajax games, and BTTS is 78% for both. Ajax always scoring away and Sparta always conceding is why Over 2.5 and BTTS – Yes stand out. Ajax's edge in the head-to-head and their away form support the away win, and Ajax team goals over 1.5 also makes sense.

Picks

  • Over/Underno odds
    Over 2.5
    Note: Odds not verified.
  • BTTSno odds
    BTTS – Yes
    Note: Odds not verified.
  • Match Result~1.45
    Away win
    Note: 1.40–1.50 at bookmakers (bet365 1.44, Betano 1.50), OddStorm/Oddsbunch, 25 Oct 2026. Approximate.
  • Team Goalsno odds
    Ajax over 1.5
    Note: Odds not verified.

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Match Stats

 Sparta RotterdamAjax
Rank144
Points918
Last 5D 2-2 Zwolle, L 1-4 PSV, L 0-4 Heerenveen, D 3-3 Go Ahead, W 3-2 Willem IIW 5-1 Fortuna, W 5-1 Willem II, D 2-2 Excelsior, D 1-1 NEC, W 5-2 Groningen
Goals per game at home / Goals per game away1.64
Last meeting
Ajax 4-0 Sparta (14 Mar 26), Sparta 3-3 Ajax (4 Oct 25)

Pre-match News

Sources

More analyses from the same day

Sparta have conceded in 9 of 9, Ajax have won 4 in a row away: a goal fest at Het Kasteel? | SportsPF